End of Q4-2022 Economic Research
Economic Research
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18m
In this comprehensive presentation, led by Jason Pries of Pries Capital, a deep dive into the economic landscape at the close of Q4-2022 unfolds. The primary focus centers on the real estate industry's significant influence on macroeconomics, with a commitment to enlightening investors about long-term trends. The presentation highlights the challenges facing the single-family housing market, exacerbated by ongoing pandemic-related impacts. Key indicators reveal the potential hurdles in both single and multi-family spending, underlining the importance of tracking the construction cycle. Affordability, mortgage rates, and the real Fed Funds rate emerge as critical factors shaping various aspects of residential construction. The discussion extends to the yield curve's role as an economic predictor and its consequences on building permits and residential remodeling. Post-COVID behavioral shifts have driven substantial residential remodeling, but uncertainties loom due to monetary tightening. Collectively, economic indicators signal challenges for future construction spending, hinting at continued economic headwinds. The presentation concludes with an early-stage recession on the horizon and a sobering outlook for the housing sector, setting the stage for further monitoring of real estate economics in future quarterly presentations.
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